Silver levels between 16.35 and 16.05 are crucial. History shows that bumping onto these levels create an atmosphere of support, which is nowadays a strong resistance. One can summon up that a close above 16.35 is bullish and a close below 16.05 is bearish. The close above 16.35 may give a new impulse toward testing 17.20 and above again, or may fail and hint for a drop back below 16.05. Close below 16.05, expect a wash out towards 14.00 and much lower – which is being traded recently.
Gold levels between 1263 and 1235 are crucial. History shows that bumping onto these levels create an atmosphere of consolidation - such condensed track record is shown in the blue polyline at the beginning of 2016 and 2017. Converging both-polyline and one can summon up that a close above 1263 is bullish and a close below 1235 is bearish. The close above 1263 may give a new impulse toward testing 1380 again, or may fail at the ascending TL near 1300/1320 and hint for a drop back below 1235. Close below 1235, expect a wash out towards 1200 and much lower.
The pound began the week on the back foot as it faces political turmoil amid the Conservative Party’s ongoing internal battle over Brexit.
GBPCHF might have its plummet paused for now; the factor of retracement of 76% has materialized at the end of May for March’s rally. In June, the cross is graphing an ascending triangle at the 4hr chart. A close above 1.3280 will target the descending TL at 1.3400+. Close below last month’s low negate.
ECB will end its bond-buying program by the end of December, Announces end of QE, taper to €15bn from Oct until end of Dec, and keepS interest rated unchanged until mid-2019.
"Bund yields and the Euro briefly spiked higher. however, just as we noted in the preview " That said, when everyone is confident that one thing will happen, don't be surprised to see the EUR tumble..." it appears the positioning is backfiring and investors are selling the news in Euro."
What To Expect from ECB?
- Unanimous expectations for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
- Will the ECB unveil its blueprint for winding down the PSPP or will they again ‘kick the can down the road’ to July?
- Questions likely to be raised on the Bank’s view surrounding the latest developments in Italian politics
- Macro projections likely to see oil prices curtail 2018 growth expectations whilst lifting inflation prospects
THE RALLY FROM 0.9200 IN FEB WAS PAUSED NEAR PAR IN MAY, A CRITICAL PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL.
DOLLAR WILL ATTEMPT RALLYING AGAIN TO STAY ABOVE PAR FOR YEARS. THOUGH FOR NOW, LET’S WORK ON THE SHORT TERM ENVIRONMENT:
THE DISTANCE THAT IS MARKED IN BLUE, OUTSIDE THE CHANNEL, IS EQUIVALENT – MEANING, A DROP IN USDCHF CAN’T BE HALTED BEFORE 0.9720 – AN INTERESTING BULLISH LEVEL.
THE EXTENSION OF THE DROP MAY SPIKE TOWARDS 0.9500 FOR A BRIEF STAY BEFORE RALLYING AGAIN; IF THAT SPIKE HAPPENS, THEN AN ADD AT 0.9500 IS ON THE NOTE.
CLOSE BELOW 0.9450 NEGATE THE BULLISH STANCE!
FED RAISES RATES, MEDIAN FORECAST SIGNALS TWO MORE 2018 HIKES. Federal Reserve forecasts unemployment will fall to 3.6% this year, the lowest since 1969 (In March, the Fed projected 3.8%). GDP expected to hit 2.8% (up from a 2.7% forecast in March). Core inflation now expected to hit 2% this year
Big change in the Fed statement when the Fed deleted the entire final paragraph that used to say interest rates were likely to remain low "for some time."
Fed Chair Powell will have a press conference after every meeting starting in January 2019.
Powell: Monetary policy affects everyone and wants to give plain English view of economy. Says it is doing well, with unemployment remaining low. Gradual rate increases needed as economy stabilizes.
Powell puts it in plain English: "The main takeaway is that the economy is doing very well. Most people who want to find jobs are finding them and unemployment and inflation are low."
North Korea Says Trump Agreed to Lift Sanctions After Meeting
Speaking at the G7 summit in Quebec, the US president claimed the EU had been economically “brutal” to America “and they understand that... they can’t believe they got away with it [for so long]”.
He said: “It has got to change – if it is not going to change, we are not going to trade with them.” And Mr Trump warned world leaders: “We [the US] are like the piggy bank that everyone is robbing – and that ends.
“If [other countries] retaliate they are making a mistake... they do so much more business with us than we do with them that we can’t lose. We win that war 1,000 times out of 1,000.”
SILVER CALLS MARGIN: THIS INACTIVE INSTRUMENT HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATED IN AN UGLY TRIANGLE SQUEEZE, LEAVING NO SPACE FOR FUN.
IT IS IN JUNE THE EXPLOSION AS CHARTED BY MONTHLY BARS. XAGUSD DAILY CLOSE < 15.78 DISAPPOINTS BULL FARM. DAILY CLOSE >17.40 BRINGS COMFORT TO THE FARM
RALLY SINCE 2014 HAS BEEN RETRACED PERFECTLY IN 2018 AT 61.8% FIB LINE.
BLUE RECTANGLE IS YOUR MEASURE FOR THE BUY OR SELL.
CLOSE ABOVE THE BLUE RECTANGLE WILL TAKE YOU TO THE SKY; BELOW, HELL EXISTS.
DON’T TRADE BEYOND THIS RECTANGLE’S RULE.
(EURO BEARS JUST STARTED - RALLY TO 1.2 IS SELLABLE BY THE FORTH QUARTER 2018)
THE DESCENDING TRIANGLE (BLUE) WITHIN THE REGRESSION CHANNEL & WITHIN ANOTHER DESCENFING TRIANGLE (RED) INDICATE THAT AN AVALANCHE IS IN THE OFFING. BEARS ARE TO BE KEPT PROTECTED BELOW THE REDDISH TL, TARGETING A YEARLY LOWER LOW, THEN 0.83
*BY THE WAY, IT IS THE ONLY CROSS THAT DIDN’T YET COLLAPSE
Yesterday, we have posted USDCAD tactical trend vision once a daily close beyond is locked.
Today, we will post a pre-mature trading decision, based on further helpful technical demonstrations, why the hunt target would be 1.2610 and not 1.3030.
- CAD and Oil are like horse and carriage, even though sometime the link between them is broken. The strong correlation between rising in the price of oil and fallen USDCAD is back on stage. (USDCAD DOWN)
- Chart 4 hr shows head and shoulder pattern (reddish arcs) (USDCAD DOWN).
- The blue rectangle comes from the weekly chart. It is the size of one week, thus imagine it as one bar. The blue rectangle versus the green rectangle on the left mark a BEARSIH ENGULFING where price traded above the rectangle and ended the week trading and closing below it. (USDCAD DOWN).
- Last week, USDCAD retraced twice (double top, yellow rectangle) below the 76.4% fib line of the bearish engulfing pattern, without closing above 61.8% fib line. Failing to complete full retracement twice is another indicator for the south vision (USDCAD DOWN).
- On Friday, the market rallied. On Monday, the market retraced in full Monday’s rally and closed below Friday’s low. (USDCAD DOWN).
- Today, Europe’s session, 4hr market closed @1.2750 below the final upsloping TL (USDCAD DOWN).
- Combining the information of yesterday’s memo and today’s, one should follow through.
Take it or leave it!
TAKEN THE COMMON GROUND BETWEEN THE ORIGINAL OLD RECTANGLE AND THE EXTENDABLE RECTANGLE THOUGH STAYING WITHIN THE LINEAR REGRESSION CHANNEL SINCE THE MARKET TOOK CONSOLIDATION CYCLE ON THE 24TH OF APRIL.
THE BATTLE IS BETWEEN THE TRIGGER OF A FALSE CUT OF LAST WEEK AND THE CLUSTER OF RESISTANCES, MAINLY THE 1.2930
A DAILY CLOSE BELOW THE FALSE CUT AREA OR ABOVE THE 1.2930 RESISTANCE DETERMINES THE NEXT TRENDING PATTERN OF 130PIPS, BE IT 1.2610 OR 1.3030 RESPECTIVELY.
Cryptocurrencies’ prices fell on Tuesday following criticism from Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett and co founder of Microsoft Bill Gates on Monday.
Bitcoin was trading at $9,431.6 by 11:25PM ET (03:25GMT) on the Bitfinex exchange, down 1.2% over the previous 24 hours.
Ethereum, the world’s second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, down 3.5% at $754.03 on the Bitfinex exchange.
XRP/USD’s XRP token traded 3.0% lower to $0.83106 on the Poloniex exchange.
Meanwhile, Litecoin slid 1.9% to $166.02.
Warren Buffett told CNBC in an interview that the “asset itself (Bitcoin) is creating nothing.”
"When you're buying nonproductive assets, all you're counting on is the next person is going to pay you more because they're even more excited about another next person coming along," Buffett said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box”.
In the same interview on Monday, Bill Gates echoed Buffett’s comment and said that he would bet against the virtual currency if he could.
"As an asset class, you're not producing anything and so you shouldn't expect it to go up. It's kind of a pure 'greater fool theory' type of investment," Gates said. "I would short it if there was an easy way to do it."
Buffett also called Bitcoin “probably rat poison squared” over the weekend.
Stop dreaming about making millions in #bitcoin alone. Cryptocurrency has adopted same charts as every instrument in the market from Euro to Dow Jones to Oil to Gold to Dollar. There are no changes in its trading sensation. It consists of Open, Close, High, Low. It could trend and could not.
Ask yourself: have you succeeded in the Dow Jones Rally alone since 2015? Your answer fits the current trading of Bitcoin.
Volatility might be off the floor in equity markets, but in the crypto world it’s heading down to levels not seen since last fall. The spread between Bitcoin’s daily high and low price has trended back toward $100. That’s a steep drop from December, when prices saw a record swing of about $4,700 in a single day (Bloomberg)
ForexSurvivor Policy Course
Mapped By Predecessor
i. The market is full of fat tail risks that are impossible to predict and can shift market fundamentals without warning.
ii. Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than traders can remain solvent.
iii. Unless we get some sort of new action, volatility isn't likely to spike out of whack.
iv. A hedge fund manager makes a series of lucrative trades based on research from analysts at his firm and conversations with industry consultants. Some of those consultants have access to nonpublic information, but the manager doesn't trade on just a single thread of data. Instead, he culls together various tidbits of information from every nook and cranny of the market to stitch together a picture of a company.
v. There's an old market adage that says it's those quiet, unassuming price trends which are the ones most likely to continue.
vi. If you are inclined to enjoy puzzles, numbers, finance, economics, business, mathematics, science, psychology, and statistics, the market will be a most enjoyable space to thrive.
vii. Charts illustrate the pendulum swing between supply and demand, and the fight between buyers and sellers. The SLOPE is the master and commander of the trade, and Fibs are the checkpoints to either lighten or increase the trade size known as load.
viii. Silver lining known as Safe haven is defined as a currency, stock or commodity favored by investors in times of crisis because of its stability and/or easy liquidation, generally have lower returns.