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IMF & World Bank,
[2017-10-16   11:00 GMT]

Don’t celebrate too soon. That was the key message as policy makers and investors left Washington on Sunday after attending the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde urged officials to act now to build buffers for the next downturn. In that spirit, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said given Chinese companies had taken on too much debt “we need to pay further effort to deleveraging and strengthen policy for financial stability.”

Politics could still spoil the party. Less than five miles away from the IMF meetings, Mexican and Canadian officials were absorbing tough proposals by the U.S. which could end up destroying the North American Free Trade Agreement.

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond fought back calls from home for his resignation for being too gloomy about Brexit, while executives from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned they are preparing for the worst-case scenario. Catalonia may still try to leave Spain and Austrian nationalists are closing in on power after elections on Sunday.

The World Economic Forum estimates the globe needs $2.5 trillion more in financing to reach the United Nations’s sustainable development goals.

BOE: This Week is Prerequisite,
[2017-10-16   10:53 GMT]

Follow carefully the sterling data of this week from inflation to wage and retail figures as they will determine the exact timing when BOE will commit a rate hike. Higher inflation and strongish retail sales should establish the route to the increase in the benchmark.
Markets have priced in around an 80 percent chance of a 25 basis-point increase on Nov. 2, which would reverse the cut put in place after the Brexit vote in 2016. Pricing suggests at least one more hike in 2018, though many economists suggest that’s too aggressive and expect a lengthy pause after the first move.


The BOE’s new tone means it’s joining the U.S. Federal Reserve in what’s becoming a global central bank shift away -- albeit very slowly -- from the ever-more loosening that’s defined policy since the financial crisis. The Fed may raise its key rate again in December, the European Central Bank is debating how and when to scale back its bond purchases, and some lawmakers are pressuring the Bank of Japan to discuss unwinding its own easing program.

The $10,000 of Bitcoin isn’t any soon,
[2017-10-13   08:34 GMT]

Bitcoin is going to be a very volatile asset for a long time. The road is sure to be rocky as bitcoin’s volatility is 10 times that of gold.

The digital currency’s surge has divided the financial community between those convinced it is a bubble on the verge of popping, like billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio said, while other big-name investors like Mark Cuban and Mike Novogratz said they’re investing in the sector.

Keep wary eyes on China & Russia interferences on Crypto Currencies – they are the leaders!

 

New regulations will cause a ‘sell’

Easing regulations will cause a ‘buy’

 

Dollar Long Term of Short Term
[2017-10-13   08:26 GMT]

Dollar dilemma is locked in. Buying the dollar ahead of newly FED appointment or selling the current rally? Over the long term, dollar bearish sentiment remains unchanged (as per weekly chart). On the other hand, the current dollar rally depicts a maneuverability in trend continuation once a close above 94.00 is triggered. In parallel, the decent south exposure of this week pertains a known phenom called retracement, i.e. buy the dip. A 9-month downsloping trendline of this year has been broken and it is very likely that it would act as support at the reading of 92.00-92.50.

In summary, it’d be foolish to depreciate the dollar unless, stocks which are at record highs, the super strong labor market, the clearest inflation signs in years, and the dollar that made a clean break with the 9-month downtrend, change course.

Bitcoin Everywhere
[2017-10-13   08:00 GMT]

Bubble! What bubble? No bubble folks! It is what it is! Call it Mania of Wall Street backed by China’s Street.

The woke-up call today shows bitcoin playing the threshold of $5850, being said that a close above $5,000 will keep the track towards $7,000.

Analysts, bankers, financial intermediaries, specs, all wonder when bitcoin’s fantasy will be destroyed whilst their realistic intentions is in the form of daily prayer “please don’t burst my bubble.”

Wanted Dead or Alive: Turkish Lira
[2017-10-13   07:48 GMT]

The second week of October started with a crash in the Turkish Lira, one of the biggest drop since the ‘failed Coup’ on tit-for-tat visa suspensions with the United States. Traders scrambled Monday morning the 9th of October as Turkey’s lira plunged, turning off live platform pricing and restricting quotes amid volatility caused by rising tensions between the U.S. and its NATO ally.

Not only the Lira was killed this week with the biggest drop of 4% where the trigger at the start of the trading week’s session was the U.S. and Turkey each suspending visa services for citizens looking to visit the other country, but also within a year we have witnessed two other crashes: the pound’s flash crash and the South African rand’s plunge. All in all, this is to certify that the $5T a day foreign exchange is fragile.

Tensions aroused when first Turkish police on Wednesday the 4th of October arrested a local employee of the US embassy in Istanbul and charged him with espionage and an attempt to overthrow the government, which was following on Sunday afternoon by the US embassy in Turkey announcing that "effective immediately" it has "suspended all non-immigrant visa services at all U.S. diplomatic facilities in Turkey.”

The market get nervous, and in early and illiquid FX trading, the TRY has tumbled to as low as 3.85 per dollar.

The visa ban puts Turkey in the same boat as Chad, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen, all of which have had travel restrictions imposed on them by U.S. this year. The Trump administration says visitors from those nations could be terrorists. Turkey’s case is an isolated case so it’s unlikely that there will be a durable contagion into the rest of emerging markets.

Our Long Term Perspective stays in good shape targeting USDTRY @ 10 within less than 4 years as the US will not leave Turkey in the Lalaland enjoying the recent Russia-Iran-China allies switch.

The Forget Scene,
[2017-10-10   09:24 GMT]

Forget Gold!

Wait…nah!!! Forget Bitcoin!

Oh! No! No! No! forget both as gemstones are hedge against volatility – Let’s do it: Diamond.

An exchange in Singapore is starting to trade a credit card-sized package of diamonds for those seeking a shelter from global risks. the Singapore Diamond Investment Exchange is listing a product called Diamond Bullion, or sets of investment-grade polished gems, in denominations of about $100,000 and $200,000 each.

“Until now, there was no way people could invest in diamonds in the form which is equivalent to investing in gold,” said Alain Vandenborre, executive chairman and founder of the exchange. “A diamond has absolutely zero correlation with any other asset class, whether it’s commodities, bonds, equities. It’s a store of wealth, it’s a hedge against volatility and you need that in your portfolio.”

The exchange plans to list other denominations in future, and the interest they attract could boost trading volumes and global prices, he said. The products are fungible and tradeable, with real-time pricing available from the exchange website or the mint’s mobile app, the bourse said in a statement.

 

Crude Oil,
[2017-10-10   05:27 GMT]

As stated, the $49 is very crucial this week if it holds a weekly close.

Targets classified as 54.14 and 60.33 should be triggered as long as $47 stays in good shape.

Close below $47 hints a fast drawing wave towards $41.20.

***Saudi Aramco plans to make “the deepest customer allocation cuts in its history” in oil supplies in November to help reduce global inventories and balance the market.

State-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Aramco, will make an “unprecedented” cut of 560,000 barrels a day in its allocations to customers next month, the Saudi energy ministry said in a statement. Aramco plans to supply 7.15 million barrels a day “despite very strong demand” that exceeds 7.7 million barrels a day, it said.

“Saudi Arabia is once again demonstrating extraordinary leadership in its commitment to re-balancing the market, as we approach the upcoming key meeting of November 30 in Vienna, by restraining not only the top-line of production volume, but even more importantly the bottom line of exports, which are what ultimately shape global inventories and market balances,” the ministry said. “The kingdom expects all other participants in the effort to follow suit and to maintain the high levels of overall conformity achieved in August going forward.”***

Gold Trade,
[2017-10-10   04:49 GMT]

As already mentioned, Gold bullish trade is kept alive as long as no close below 1250 is triggered. Last week, specifically on Friday, Gold tested the nerves of supports yet afterwards it shot up to the sky. The repetitive scenario is keeping the 1250 safe to keep the bull farm out of hurricanes.

Donald Trump: the calm before the storm
[2017-10-10   04:41 GMT]

The Iran nuclear deal's unraveling could become a full-on crisis.

The U.S. commander-in-chief informed the nation on Thursday evening that a meeting he was having with military brass might be "the calm before the storm" that Donald Trump briefed reporters about. It's possible he meant nothing; you may recall he blithely undercut the $3.8 trillion muni-bond market this week with a choice remark about Puerto Rico's debt getting "wiped out." (Yeah? Nah.)

Yet there is a storm looming in the shape of a decision about the nuclear deal with Iran. On October 15, the administration must either re-certify that Tehran is complying with its terms and that the suspension of sanctions remains vital to U.S. national security -- or not.

An oil market seemingly benumbed to geopolitics -- prices slumped on Friday -- risks being caught out by a crisis. Though not necessarily in the way that deadline suggests.

Even so, a decision not to re-certify wouldn't mean an immediate breach. Instead, it would represent that most practiced of maneuvers in American politics: tossing the issue to Congress.

Legislators would then have 60 days to pass fast-track legislation -- no filibusters -- re-imposing sanctions on Iran.

One thing I learned in the Army is that when your opponent is on his knees, you drive him to the ground and choke him out.

While this means that, on its own, the October 15 deadline shouldn't necessarily jolt the oil market, it tees up a potential crisis in 2018.

The key date is January 12. That's when another deadline rolls around, this time for the president to continue waiving sanctions against Iran, as the U.S. is obliged to do under the deal. He could decide to not waive them regardless of what he does on October 15.

Yet Iran's government appears unlikely to agree to big changes, in part so as not to lose face domestically, but also because the coalition that enforced sanctions so well in the years leading up to 2015 likely wouldn't hold. China and Russia are obvious spoilers. But even nominal allies in Europe, which account for half the recovery in Iran's oil exports, may be reluctant to follow America's lead:

 

 

 

 

Oil Rally Or Correction?
[2017-10-10   04:36 GMT]

Was $50 a barrel for oil just a passing fancy?

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, skyrocketed above $52 a barrel at the end of September, teasing investors. But the rally didn’t last long. After hedge funds sliced their net-long position on WTI and pulled back from record bets on rising Brent prices, oil had slipped as low as $49.10 on Friday. The rally went too far and it was just time for correction. The $49 is a confluence point between MA50 and MA200.

Saudi King Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked up their supply-cut deal in a historic meeting in Moscow, suggesting it could be extended, but with so many signs pointing to a glut, their boost to prices was short-lived.

Oil’s had a heck of a run for the month of September. The continued concerns in the market that keeps the shorts active: Is OPEC compliance waning? Will their compliance start to be less? Will they start to cheat more?”

China & US Eye Coal
[2017-10-10   04:28 GMT]

When China halted plans for more than 100 new coal-fired power plants this year, even as US President Donald Trump vowed to "bring back coal" in America, the contrast seemed to confirm Beijing's new role as a leader in the fight against climate change.

However, new data on the world's biggest developers of coal-fired power plants paints a very different picture: China's energy companies will make up nearly half of the new coal generation expected to go online in the next decade.

These Chinese corporations are building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, some in countries that today burn little or no coal.

The fleet of new coal plants would make it virtually impossible to meet the goals set in the Paris climate accord. Electricity generated from fossil fuels such as coal is the biggest single contributor globally to the rise in carbon emissions, which scientists agree is causing the earth's temperatures to rise.

The United States may also be back in the game. Last Thursday, Mr Trump said he wanted to lift Obama-era restrictions on US financing for overseas coal projects as part of an energy policy focused on exports. "We have nearly 100 years' worth of natural gas and more than 250 years' worth of clean, beautiful coal," he said. "We will be dominant. We will export American energy all over the world, all around the globe."

Light Trading But Busy Week
[2017-10-10   04:24 GMT]

Tuesday: Bi-Annual IMF World Economic Outlook

Wednesday: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook STEO & OPEC Monthly

Thursday: IEA Market Report: Oil

 

Oil Inventories Are Set To Plunge 50 Million Barrels By December: The current oil price of ~$49.00 is in no way pricing in what could be an inventory draw from October to December that is over 160x the average seasonal draw for this period over the past 14 years, or by a total amount of 50 million barrels. While this may sound extreme, it is important to note that 2017 so far has seen similarly impressive results. From 2003 to present, the average seasonal build year-to-date has been about 14 million barrels.

 

What Strategists Say about Euro Weakness
[2017-10-03   08:35 GMT]

UniCredit: while the “the fundamental tailwind is definitely not as strong as it used to be” for the euro, he remains bullish and sees fair-value at $1.24-$1.25

ING: ECB policy normalization story “provides a backstop to the euro. Unlike prior occasions when European political risks have flared, we now have the tailwind of an ECB looking to tighten -- or normalize -- monetary policy.” This should keep EUR/USD supported around 1.17 -- although a break of this could see a deeper technical correction toward 1.15-1.16.

Mizuho International: The Spanish economy “is in very good shape, so uncertainty at the national government level should not be too damaging from a macro perspective.” EUR/USD is probably the “clearest indicator of current market sentiment to EUR tail risks. Watch 1.1715 as an important support.”

Credit Agricole CIB: While the euro started Monday on a weak footing after the Catalonia vote, “looking ahead, we do not expect the latest development to have sustainable market impact.” While growth momentum remains strong enough to support a more hawkish ECB stance, it remains attractive to buy EUR dips. Keep long EUR/USD and EUR/CHF as trade recommendations

Commerzbank AG: The situation in Spain “is a bit more messy than most had thought, including us,” however, the fallout should stay limited.” Catalonia “will clearly dominate the headlines near-term, but the more important longer-term developments will be Germany/EU, and Italy.

Ahead of Non Farm Payroll,
[2017-10-03   08:25 GMT]

The dollar struck a 1-1/2-month high on Tuesday as Treasury yields rose after a strong reading for U.S. manufacturing activity hardened expectations for U.S. interest rates to rise by the year-end.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was up 0.3 percent at 93.847 after touching 93.891, its highest since Aug. 17.

“The dollar is drawing support from familiar themes. The Fed continues to sound hawkish, U.S. indicators are good and price indicators are rising;” all these factors are cementing the prospect of a December rate hike by the Fed.

The common currency had already slid 0.7 percent overnight against a data-boosted dollar. The euro also took a knock on Monday as Spain faced its biggest constitutional crisis in decades after Sunday’s independence referendum in Catalonia.

The impact on the euro from the Catalonia vote is likely to fade. Other euro zone markets, like those in Germany, have taken the vote in their stride. Wanting independence and actually achieving it are also two different matters.

The dollar, which initially slipped to 112.660 yen early in the session, was up 0.3 percent at 113.080 yen. A rise above 113.260 would take the greenback to its highest since mid-July.

The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates on hold at a record low of 1.5 percent with the focus on its assessment of the economy and how that could impact is monetary policy.

Crypto War
[2017-10-03   08:19 GMT]

Bitcoin traders can breathe a sigh of relief. If JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s CEO Jamie Dimon fires them for trading the cybercurrency, Goldman Sachs Group could welcome them with open arms.

Goldman is reportedly considering a new operation dedicated to buying and selling digital currencies. Goldman would be the first large Wall Street firm to explicitly have a bitcoin trading desk, and the news seemed to legitimize the currency less than a month after Dimon called it a "fraud" and said that he would fire anyone stupid enough to trade it. Indeed, prices of bitcoin, which many people already thought were in a bubble, rose $193 on Monday to $4,365 each. That's up from $952 at the beginning of the year, for a staggering 360 percent return in 2017 alone. The S&P 500 is considered to be having a great year. It's up 15 percent, including dividends.

Will Gold Follow Iron Ore Plunge
[2017-09-29   08:46 GMT]

Gold is likely to close below the $1300, the 50-day moving average for the first time since August after the Federal Reserve reiterated that interest rates will gradually rise. The 50-day moving average has been a support for only few days, with prices bouncing off it four times since August. Breaking through it has a history of leading to more losses and when gold fell below the level in June, prices dropped more than 4 percent in three weeks.

This hawkishness to strengthen dollar further and keep gold heading south to 1255

Technically Speaking
[2017-09-29   08:38 GMT]

EURUSD (1.1805) is showing a Head and Should pattern, topping 1.2100 and neck-lined at 1.1875. This pattern is incorrigible as euro prints south on a daily basis since the break of that neckline. Target should be grabbed at 1.1600 (adding positions to the bear farm if 1.1900 is seen).

Because of Iron Ore
[2017-09-29   08:30 GMT]

In the last quarter we are examining how commodities are going to plummet as iron ore took a massive hit in September, and plummeting off the cliff hasn’t finalized just yet. Put the blame on the Chinese calling for a vigorous campaign to curb pollution this winter by ordering plant halts will sap steel production and roll back demand for ore.

Back to the fame: now miners are being hurt by low prices putting the stock on course for the biggest loss. In the near term, the market will go quiet, with a week-long nationwide holiday in the first week of October.

EURNZD Bullish Force,
[2017-09-29   07:23 GMT]

The uptrend in the cross of EURNZD is clearly not impaired in any way. The repetitive scenario of graphing a cup then testing the surface of the cup via a downward channel is amazing. The bull ain’t giving up just yet, thus, let’s revisit the top at least for now.

Yellen Heals Her Speech on Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy
[2017-09-27   06:33 GMT]

The U.S. dollar was underpinned on Wednesday by remarks from the Federal Reserve chief on the need to continue with rate hikes, while the euro licked the wounds from political uncertainty following the German election at weekend.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve needs to continue gradual rate hikes despite broad uncertainty about the path of inflation.

Central bankers will be forced to slow down and reassess their approach because of a weaker-than-expected U.S. economy. Some will point to the narrowing yield curve to prove this; the gap between yields on 30-year and two-year Treasuries, for example, shrank further, to the least since 2007.

There has been one clear reaction by bond traders: Implied chances of a December interest-rate increase by the Fed rose after already increasing considerably over the past several weeks. They reached nearly 70 percent in the wake of Yellen's comments from as low as 22 percent earlier this month, according to trading in futures contracts tracked by Bloomberg. This is making it easier for the Fed to go ahead and make another move this year despite the somewhat inconclusive U.S. economic data.

"the trend is your friend until it bends" is very much valid for Cryptofund
[2017-09-27   05:59 GMT]

I would stay on my imagination: If you haven't make money on the dollar basket for all those years how the hell you are going to make it with crypto fund?

Difference between Dollar Basket and Crypto Fund is zero: Both have the same chart, the same way of opening /closing a bar, and the same way of identifying high/low of a candle.

Your system, if it works on the dollar currency, should work on the crypto fund. If it doesn’t, just don’t believe in the trend too long. Desperation comes every few months. Be prepared!

Oil’s not going above $55 for years
[2017-09-26   05:28 GMT]

Gartman's main focus has been on the oil futures curve, and that the contango has been widening as of late. Contango is the difference between oil contracted for near-term delivery and crude slated for delivery further in the future.

"There will be no freeze of any consequence," Gartman said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "The contangos continue to widen, which tells you that there is an abundance of supply in the market. As long as the contangos continue to widen, as crude oil bids for storage, prices are going to head lower."

"The Saudis, the Iranians and the Russians have nothing they can say to us to tell us to stop our own production and we won't," he said.

As a result, Gartman believes that oil's supply concerns mean the commodity's price will be capped.

"The reality is we're going to be stuck for several years between $35 on the low end, and $55 on the high," he said.

Soft Demand,
[2017-09-25   11:48 GMT]

Bearish sentiment continues to gather pace despite a complete carnage in iron ore days ago. Iron ore started drifting lower in September after peaking near $80 in August. AUDUSD & NZDUSD will have to show in the coming days a directional correlation with the fall in iron ore.

Central banks grandees speak this week
[2017-09-25   11:08 GMT]

Draghi addresses EU lawmakers in Brussels on Monday. Yellen speaks in Cleveland on Tuesday. Later in the week, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speaks, as does soon-to-depart Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer.

European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and U.K. counterpart David Davis begin their next round of negotiations.

Household spending last month in the U.S. probably posted the smallest gain since February as motor-vehicle sales shifted into a lower gear, economists forecast government figures to show.

New Zealand Election Looms
[2017-09-21   06:11 GMT]

Growth is recovering slowly after two sluggish quarters, putting New Zealand on course for a ninth straight year of expansion just two days before voters go to the polls in the Sept. 23 election. While demand is being stoked by record-low interest rates and surging immigration, there are few signs that inflation pressures are building sufficiently for the Reserve Bank to change its forecast that borrowing costs will stay unchanged until 2019.

Faster growth “won’t prevent the RBNZ from leaving interest rates unchanged at next Thursday’s policy meeting and striking a dovish tone too,” said Paul Dales, chief Australia and New Zealand economist at Capital Economics in Sydney. “It may give National a bit of a boost ahead of Saturday’s election.”

Rate Hike
[2017-09-21   06:04 GMT]

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged that the fall in inflation this year was a bit of a “mystery” but suggested that the central bank was on course to raise interest rates again in 2017 nonetheless.

“We continue to expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases” in rates, she told a press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it will slowly begin to pare its bond holdings next month. As expected, the target range for the federal funds rate was held at 1 percent to 1.25 percent.

The central bank’s intention to press ahead with another rate hike this year and three more in 2018 caught investors by surprise, sending bond yields and the dollar higher. The strategy represents a bit of a gamble because it risks cementing inflation permanently below the Fed’s 2 percent target.

Yellen said inflation may be lifted by higher prices for gasoline and other items while growth will be depressed by the devastation caused by the storms. But history suggests those effects will prove to be temporary, she said.

FED Sees 2017 Hike
[2017-09-21   05:57 GMT]

Dollar surged after the Federal Reserve struck a more hawkish tone than markets anticipated.

While policy makers left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, markets showed a hawkish reaction to officials’ forecast for where rates will be at the end of the year. U.S. central bankers are counting on steady growth and low unemployment to raise inflation closer to their goal, which would support their policy of gradual tightening through interest-rate increases and a reversal of quantitative easing.

“Catching the equity market off guard was the dot plot indicating that 12 of the 16 voting members project a December rate hike,” said Quincy Krosby, Chief Market Strategist at Prudential Financial.“There remains an ongoing tug of war between those who think the economy is still too weak to handle another rate hike versus those who say that financial conditions and a strengthening global economy warrant the move towards rate normalization.”

42-minute tweetstorm
[2017-09-20   05:03 GMT]

Trump's rhetoric -- dubbing Kim Jong-un a "rocket man" on a "suicide mission" -- was lapped up by supporters at home, but left allies around the world bewildered at the change that has gripped the world's only superpower.

US officials privately admit that any military option against North Korea would be potentially disastrous for allies in South Korea, within range of Pyongyang artillery loaded with chemical weapons.

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually active
[2017-09-20   04:56 GMT]

It will almost certainly be the most expensive season on record in the United States. That distinction, like most others, currently belongs to 2005, when Katrina and three other major hurricanes caused more than $143.5 billion of damage in the country. But this year, AccuWeather estimated that Hurricanes Harvey and Irma might cost a combined $290 billion: two storms producing double the economic damage of four in 2005.

Gold Retracement
[2017-09-19   07:58 GMT]

The retracement is perfected before strengthening further ahead of year end.

A Close below 38% would send the price lightly below 61%

De-Dollarization
[2017-09-19   07:18 GMT]

China and Russia, joined most likely by their major trading partner countries in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), as well as by their Eurasian partner countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are about to complete the working architecture of a new monetary alternative to a dollar world.


Currently, in addition to founding members China and Russia, the SCO full members include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and most recently India and Pakistan. This is a population of well over 3 billion people, some 42% of the entire world population, coming together in a coherent, planned, peaceful economic and political cooperation.


China is about to launch a crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan that will be convertible into gold. This, when coupled with other moves over the past two years by China to become a viable alternative to London and New York to Shanghai, becomes really interesting.


Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that Venezuela will be looking to “free” itself from the U.S. dollar next week. According to Reuters, "Venezuela is going to implement a new system of international payments and will create a basket of currencies to free us from the dollar.”

Yellen Final Stretch
[2017-09-19   07:16 GMT]

Janet Yellen, the first woman to chair the Federal Reserve, may be entering the final stretch of a tenure defined by her deft navigation of the U.S. economy and the first steps toward exiting crisis-era policies that kept interest rates near zero for the better part of a decade.

President Donald Trump said in July that Yellen is “absolutely” in the running to remain at the helm of the U.S. central bank when her term expires in February. That doesn’t mean he’ll pick her, or that she even wants a second term. Yellen has declined to comment on the topic. The White House is also considering other candidates.

Oil most polluting industries had started fighting climate change
[2017-09-19   07:14 GMT]

It’s no secret that oil majors are among the biggest corporate emitters of pollution. What may be surprising is that they’re reducing their greenhouse-gas footprints every year, actively participating in a trend that’s swept up most corporate behemoths.

The five biggest oil companies -- Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp., BP Plc and Total SA -- collectively curbed their pollution by an average of 13 percent between 2010 and 2015, the report said. BP cut the most at 25.5 percent. Exxon, the largest emitter among listed companies, pushed it down by 14 percent.

The report shows a reverse from previous decades, when scientific warnings about climate change were new and the companies behind the most emissions lobbied policymakers to ignore the issue. As mega-storms like Hurricane Irma this year and Sandy in 2012 raised consciousness about the issue, companies even in the oil business have taken steps to rein in pollution and associate themselves with the green agenda.

The reductions recorded by the 100 top companies saved 70.7 million tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, about as much as Israel emits in a year. Because emissions data takes so long to compile, 2015 is the latest year covered.

“This is a reflection of growing pressure from shareholders, investor groups and civil society for more disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as setting reduction targets,” said Laura McIntyre-Brown, analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance and the author of the report. “There’s also an evident trend of increased emissions disclosure among many of the biggest companies.”

What to watch out for this week:
[2017-09-19   07:08 GMT]

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has reshuffled her team of top Brexit negotiators in preparation for talks entering a new phase.

The BOJ is predicted to stand pat Thursday and probably won’t reveal when it’ll unwind stimulus, but could signal determination to keep the yield curve under control.

Indonesia, the Philippines and South Africa are among countries settling monetary policy.

The final days of Germany’s parliamentary campaign will play out before the Sept. 24 vote. New Zealand goes to the polls on Sept. 23.

Markets maintained a risk-on stance
[2017-09-19   07:07 GMT]

U.S. stocks advanced to fresh records, while the dollar halted a two-day drop and Treasuries slipped as investors remained optimistic about the economy. Gold fell as demand for havens faded.

The S&P 500 Index held above 2,500 to notch a fresh record after briefly losing an advance that reached 0.3 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added to its all-time high. Earlier, equities from Asia to Europe gained. The dollar climbed versus the euro and pound. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 2.23 percent. Gold tumbled, while oil was little changed.
Markets maintained a risk-on stance after last week’s gains, with investors turning attention to this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. While the central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, close attention will be paid to the chance of an increase later in the year and on whether officials will announce the start of a reduction in the bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

Rollercoaster for Bitcoin
[2017-09-19   07:04 GMT]


    In order for the Chinese government to prevent and control the risk of virtual currency, it decided to prohibit the issuance of ICO tokens, and stop the trading of cryptocurrencies and other virtual currencies on exchanges, to better protect the interests of China's financial consumers, and to prevent the spread of currency risk to China's financial system, safeguard China's financial security and the stability of important economic initiatives. The sovereign state is still the fundamental player in global politics, and carries with it the characteristics of the world financial system. Cryptocurrencies and other virtual currencies attempt to challenge the sovereign state's right to issue currency, requiring the nationalization of currency issuance. China has a clear understanding of digital forms of money, and is actively engaging in relevant work. The central bank has set up a research group and a digital money research institute to explore the digitization of sovereign money. After this round of virtual money markets supervision, we expect under the auspices of the Chinese central bank to launch our own sovereign digital currency as soon as possible to help maintain China's leadership in the development of global digital finance.

 
Australia's Central Bank Sees Solid Jobs Growth Ahead
[2017-09-19   06:57 GMT]

Australia’s central bank expects to see solid employment growth ahead as the economy gradually picks up, while noting risks from housing debt outpacing household income.

In minutes of this month’s policy meeting, where interest rates were left unchanged, the Reserve Bank of Australia gave no signal policy was set to change any time soon.

Global Central Banks To Issue Cryptocurrencies
[2017-09-18   12:51 GMT]

The world’s central banks can’t ignore the growth in cryptocurrencies and may at some point have to consider whether it makes sense for them to issue their own digital currencies, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

“Whether or not a central bank should provide a digital alternative to cash is most pressing in countries, such as Sweden, where cash usage is rapidly declining,” the BIS said in its quarterly review. “But all central banks may eventually have to decide whether issuing retail or wholesale CBCCs makes sense in their own context.”

In making these decisions, institutions will need to take into account of not only privacy issues and efficiency gains in payment systems, but also potential economic, financial and monetary policy repercussions, according to the BIS.

“In less than a decade, bitcoin has gone from being an obscure curiosity to a household name,” it said. “While it seems unlikely that bitcoin or its sisters will displace sovereign currencies, they have demonstrated the viability of the underlying blockchain or distributed ledger technology.”

 

Bitcoin Bulls Status: Crowded
[2017-09-18   12:46 GMT]

Bullish bets on the cryptocurrency are now considered the most crowded trade in financial markets, according to fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Twenty-six percent cited bitcoin, surpassing the 22 percent who considered the most overheated wager to be the long trade on the Nasdaq Composite Index. Shorting the dollar was third, at 21 percent. The cryptocurrency has risen more than four-fold this year amid greater acceptance of the blockchain technology that underpins the exchange method, global political uncertainty and increased interest in Asia.

Options Dealers Anticipate Calmer Seas
[2017-09-18   12:42 GMT]

The euro halted a decline last week on the 13th to avoid its first two-day drop this month, as options traders wagered the selloff will get reversed.

They’re net bullish all the way out to six months from now versus the dollar, taking heart from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi failing to talk down his currency in public comments on Sept. 7, and from futures indicating the most aggressive long wagering since 2011.

DXY
[2017-09-18   09:44 GMT]

Multi Decades Dollar Index In One Picture does not say anything about serious bulls!

EURGBP
[2017-09-06   11:15 GMT]

A trade for the rest of the year - enjoy the tactic!

Cautioned Against Over Dramatizing the Appreciation of Euro
[2017-09-06   05:55 GMT]

Foreign exchange traders face an anxious wait to see if European Central Bank policymakers will on Thursday address a euro rally that has put the currency on track for the best year against the dollar in its history.

An improving eurozone economy and the prospect that the ECB will scale back a bond-buying plan first introduced in 2015 to ward off deflation, has catapulted the euro almost 13 per cent higher against the US currency so far this year.

The majority of economists expect Mario Draghi, the ECB president, and the rest of the governing council to delay announcing a timetable for cutting its monthly purchase of bonds when they gather this week. However, traders and investors in the $5.1tn daily currency market will be intensely focused on whether officials voice any anxiety about an appreciation in the common currency that threatens the competitiveness of eurozone exporters and exerts downward pressure on inflation.

Mr. Draghi has to talk about the euro, said Thanos Vamvakidis, a senior foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “They’re already below their [inflation] target, they have to acknowledge there are further downside risks to their inflation outlook because of the strong euro.”

Indeed on Friday, Ewald Nowotny, a member of the governing council, cautioned against over dramatizing the appreciation of the euro, which traded at close to the $1.40 mark in 2014. However, even if Mr. Draghi seeks to temper the euro’s strength this week, some are skeptical it will have a lasting effect should a strengthening eurozone economy persuade investors to allocate more capital to the region.

Job Report
[2017-09-01   12:54 GMT]

A disappointing jobs report, with both lower-than-expected wages and headline number. Treasury yields fall. Dollar heads lower after the jobs report; The economy has added 1,189,000 jobs so far since Trump took office. That's about 170,000 a month, a bit slower than Obama gains last year. The bad news in the jobs report: Wages only grew by 2.5%. We're just not getting any wage growth. And......Gold is back to where we started!

Government to release August job growth and unemployment report
[2017-09-01   12:21 GMT]

How many jobs did the economy create in August? We'll find out at 8:30am. The 200,000+ jobs would be good sign for POTUS.

The federal government is scheduled to release its report on August job growth and unemployment Friday, an important indicator of the overall health of the U.S. economy after two months of strong growth.

Analysts and market watchers expect federal economists to report that about 200,000 new jobs were created in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3 percent — a 16-year low.

Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor, which tracks employment data, said the United States appears to be inching toward full employment, but the sheer volume of vacant positions could stall further progress.

Nationally, economists expect August to continue a historic, 98-month-long string of consecutive months of job growth.

Signs of improvement have characterized this summer: July’s burst of new jobs (209,000) followed June’s surge (222,000). The stock markets have soared to record highs.

And about a month ago, the country reached a recovery milestone, regaining the same employment level it had before the recession hit about 10 years earlier, accounting for changes in population. (The nation regained its pre-downturn number of jobs in April 2014.)

LABOR DEPT HAVING LOCKUP TECH PROBLEMS; RELEASE ON WEB AT 8:30
[2017-09-01   12:12 GMT]

The Mess is On:

Moments ago, Bloomberg blasted that unlike every other payrolls Friday when at 8:30am precisely, news feeds are flooded with headlines breaking down the jobs report, prompting algos to buy or buy stocks, this time that won't happen:

  • LABOR DEPT HAVING LOCKUP TECH PROBLEMS; RELEASE ON WEB AT 8:30

This means that anyone, algos included, who wants to get the jobs number will either have to wait several minutes until others have done the work for them (so roughly 90% of Wall Street analysts) or have to go to the BLS.gov website, scrape it manually and break down the data on their own.

It also means that today's market reaction to the jobs report will likely be a mess.

BITCOIN: TP: 5200
[2017-09-01   11:45 GMT]

Famed investor Andrew Left, who makes his money betting that the shares of companies are overvalued and due for a fall, has a fresh target in his sights: a bitcoin fund. Bitcoin is exorbitantly overvalued relative to its underlying asset and poised to tumble. Bitcoin is up 400% year to date, but the Grayscale fund is up an eye-popping 726% so far this year, according to FactSet data.

Moreover, the problem is that Bitcoin Investment Trust maintains a market value of $1.8 billion. In other words, Grayscale’s bitcoin fund is more than twice the value of bitcoin — an asset that is itself the subject of a litany of bubble calls. “That alone is completely ridiculous, but on top of that they don’t even have insurance for the bitcoin that they are custodians of,” Left told CNBC on Thursday during an interview on “Fast Money,” referring to its valuation.

Bottom-line: “For investors buying into the fund, such large premiums are a disaster waiting to happen”

 

Greenback is key for the commodities market
[2017-09-01   11:40 GMT]

COPPER MAKES A RUN TOWARD $7,000: Tuesday was another good day for base metals, as copper rallied to an almost three-year high and putting it within reach of the key $7,000 a metric ton level. Like with most other markets, commodities traders looked past North Korea's latest missile test to focus on a weaker dollar and an outlook for improved Chinese demand. The greenback is key for the commodities market as its slump makes raw materials cheaper for buyers using other currencies, according to Bloomberg News' Mark Burton. Copper’s rally this month has helped it to challenge aluminum’s position as the best-performing base metal this year. Copper is up 23 percent on the LME, compared with 24 percent for aluminum. China, the world’s largest aluminum producer, is tackling excess supply by ordering plant closures and looks set to make good on its pledges as the government pushes to reduce pollution, according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd. 

Next Disaster: Irma versus gas shortages
[2017-09-01   11:22 GMT]

Irma was named as a tropical storm on Wednesday morning and by Thursday afternoon it had strengthened into a large Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 115 mph. Such explosive strengthening is known as "rapid intensification," defined by the National Hurricane Center as having its wind speed increase at least 30 knots (35 mph) in 24 hours.

Hurricane Harvey underwent rapid intensification last week, just before landfall, which brought it from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane when it moved onshore near Corpus Christi. TRACK THE STORM HERE

Hurricane Irma is forecast to continue to strengthen as it moves westward over the next five days and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center puts a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Irma on the doorstep of the Caribbean by the end of the five-day forecast on Tuesday afternoon.

Bottom line: Hurricane Irma is already a powerful hurricane and looks to only become more so. Those with interests in the Caribbean and southeast US coast should pay close attention to the forecast.

Why are we seeing gas shortages now?

Texas is the energy capital of the country, both in terms of crude oil production and refining that into different types of fuel such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products. Several refineries shut down as a precaution before Harvey made landfall in southeast Texas coast on Friday night as a category 4 hurricane. In the following days, as the storm caused widespread flooding, more inland refineries stopped operations. As of late Wednesday, more than a fifth of the nation's refining capacity -- including two of the country's largest oil refineries -- was out of commission as oil companies battled flooding. 

How long will this last?

There is still a great deal of uncertainty. Many refineries have not said when they expect refineries to be back up and running. But experts aren't panicking. There's little evidence of major damage at most Texas Gulf Coast refineries, which are well-equipped to deal with flooding, Hatfield said. However, they can't just flip a switch and immediately start producing gasoline and diesel.

 

August labor market report
[2017-09-01   11:14 GMT]

All eyes are on the August labor market report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, which will likely set the tone for the trading week to come. Economists forecast job growth of 180,000, the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3 percent, a 16-year low, and average hourly earnings up 0.2 percent month-on-month. The latter metric is capturing more market attention in light of mediocre wage growth even as the labor market tightens. One note of caution: for six years running, economists have consistently overestimated August payrolls. Manufacturing and vehicle-sales data are also due out today.

The consensus has been consistently wrong about U.S. employment in the month of August. For six years running, economists have overestimated the government’s initial payrolls print -- and by a pretty wide margin -- a trend that may be explained by the seasonal adjustment process. To be fair, the government has revised those first August prints substantially higher. The biggest miss was in 2014, when the Bloomberg median forecast was off by a whopping 88,000. The median projection ahead of Friday’s jobs report is 180,000.

BofA stop fighting the central banks and sell euros
[2017-09-01   08:45 GMT]

In a new report that may come as music to the ears of Mario Draghi, who has been valiantly hoping to show the European economy recovering while keeping the EURUSD below the "red line" of 1.20, BofA FX strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis is out with a new note today urging currency traders to "stop fighting the central banks", in other words stop selling the USD and buying the EUR, and recommends shorting the EURUSD to 1.15 with a 1.21 stop loss.

His thesis is simple: markets have been fighting the major central banks, and BofA argues that they will be proven wrong, "leading to lower EUR/USD in the months ahead following the recent rally." Such a contrary posture by markets is unusual as markets usually follow the simple rule not to fight the G10 central banks, particularly the major ones. However, as Vamvakidis writes, "the market expects very little from the Fed in the rest of this year and next year, despite the unexpected two Fed hikes so far this year and the dot plot having four more hikes by end-2018. The market also seems to expect too much from the ECB-fast QE tapering-despite inflation being well below the target and room for slow QE tapering. The consensus is also that the two central banks will respond differently to low inflation this year, with the Fed staying on hold and the ECB giving up. We disagree and see EUR/USD weakening by the end of this year, following the strong rally so far."

 

Still Too Many Stock Market Bulls?
[2017-09-01   08:39 GMT]

The stock market held firm last week despite threats of a government shutdown but hopes for new tax cut legislation encouraged the bulls. The economic data did not move the markets but comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen reassured investors.

The stock market looked like it was going to resume its decline Wednesday, but the selling was met with good buying that may have been nervous short covering. Most of the major averages like to Spyder Trust (SPY) topped out around August 8 and have just declined twelve days from their highs.

The market deterioration was first evident in the small cap stocks as the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) peaked on July 25, so it has been correcting for twenty-four days. At the recent low of $134.12, it had dropped 7% which is a fairly normal correction. By comparison, the SPY was only down 2.8% from its high to last Monday’s low.

The Russell 2000 A/D line dropped below its WMA on July 28 and then broke its uptrend on August 2. IWM then rallied back to its 20 day EMA which provided a good opportunity for Viper ETF traders to buy an inverse ETFs. IWM is still well below the declining 20 day EMA and it formed a doji on Friday.

The daily A/D line has moved back above its declining WMA but is still below the stronger resistance at line b. A move above this resistance would be the first sign that it is trying to bottom. The weekly A/D line (not shown) has turned up but is still below its declining WMA.

Dollar Index: Technical Fireworks 13 Count
[2017-09-01   08:35 GMT]

DXY has now defended its major support band, setting off technical fireworks which produced both a bullish Doji reversal and a Demark 13 count, which produce tactical upside target levels of 94.15 at the 223.6% retracement resistance and from there, 96.28. DXY is already making new session highs and has retraced 61.8% of the 30 day sell off in just 2.5 sessions.

The start of September’s ECB meeting now takes on even more ‘weight’ with the direction of the global macro trade. In the meantime, we focus on US inflation and wages data to sustain or arrest this nascent Dollar counter-trend rally which is looking increasingly asymmetric.

September 24: German Election
[2017-09-01   08:29 GMT]

Forty-six percent of German voters do not know who to vote for in the September 24 parliamentary election, according to a poll published in Wednesday’s edition of newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine. Angela Merkel would like her CDU/CSU to have an outright majority. That does not look possible according to the latest German Election Opinion Polls.

While the AfD and Die Linke have little chance of joining the next government (Merkel’s Christian Democrats have ruled out cooperating with either), finishing third could give them the prestige of leading the opposition. A third-place finish by either party could also derail a Jamaica combination, improving the chances of a reprisal of the grand coalition between the conservatives and Social Democrats.

“Should sterling’s depreciation continue this might call the Bank of England into action,”
[2017-09-01   08:25 GMT]

Sterling’s weakening to the lowest since October 2016 in trade-weighted terms has brought the currency near the level that prompted the Bank of England governor to point out at the time that he and his colleagues weren’t “indifferent” to the exchange rate. That suggests any remarks from policy makers will now be scrutinized all the more for any reference to their thinking on its impact.

Sterling’s move may tempt the BOE to consider the example of their counterparts in Frankfurt, who are also grappling with a currency problem -- albeit of the opposite nature. European Central Bank officials broke their silence on the euro’s advance in minutes of their July meeting, in which they expressed concern that the currency may overshoot.

“Should sterling’s depreciation continue this might call the Bank of England into action,” Thu Lan Nguyen, an analyst at Commerzbank AG, wrote in a note on Wednesday. “The central bank will not want to risk that the so far moderate depreciation trend gathers momentum.”

ForexSurvivor Policy Course

Mapped By Predecessor


i. The market is full of fat tail risks that are impossible to predict and can shift market fundamentals without warning.

ii. Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than traders can remain solvent.

iii. Unless we get some sort of new action, volatility isn't likely to spike out of whack.

iv. A hedge fund manager makes a series of lucrative trades based on research from analysts at his firm and conversations with industry consultants. Some of those consultants have access to nonpublic information, but the manager doesn't trade on just a single thread of data. Instead, he culls together various tidbits of information from every nook and cranny of the market to stitch together a picture of a company.

v. There's an old market adage that says it's those quiet, unassuming price trends which are the ones most likely to continue.

vi. If you are inclined to enjoy puzzles, numbers, finance, economics, business, mathematics, science, psychology, and statistics, the market will be a most enjoyable space to thrive.

vii. Charts illustrate the pendulum swing between supply and demand, and the fight between buyers and sellers. The SLOPE is the master and commander of the trade, and Fibs are the checkpoints to either lighten or increase the trade size known as load.

viii. Silver lining known as Safe haven is defined as a currency, stock or commodity favored by investors in times of crisis because of its stability and/or easy liquidation, generally have lower returns.

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