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Draghi To Explain,
[2019-03-07   09:59 GMT]

How after years of negative rates and QE, Europe is again on the verge of a crisis as TLTRO takes place only in case of serious economic shock. Another TLTRO could send risk assets sliding in what would be a nightmare outcome for Draghi.

Without new funds, the risk is that banks will curtail access to credit and worsen the slowdown.

 

AS OF TODAY, AFTER ECB, IF RISK ASSETS PLUMMET OR NOT, AND IF EUROPE IS ON THE VERGE OF A CRISIS AGAIN, YOU SHOULD HAVE A LONG TERM TARGET GRAPHED WITHIN A NON-STOP PROLONGED WAVE FOR THE EURO: EITHER EURUSD @ 1.2000 OR @ 1.0650.

 

*floating rally sellable

Silver Rally Isn’t Seriously Bought,
[2019-02-28   03:44 GMT]

Silver is trading at its strongest level since it double-bottomed at 14.00 between Sep & Oct of year 2018. The current level is testing the 3-year downsloping trendline at 16.00.

The daily time frame shows the descending triangle pattern which acts mostly for the bears. So far, we have no serious closings above the resistance, the 3-year trendline, and the bears are controlling the market as long as no weekly close above 16.35 is triggered.

Shifting the graph towards the short term of 4 hr, worth to note the triple daily top or the bi-monthly top between Jan & Feb of 2019, marketing below 16.35. Add, that this week a 4hr candlestick bearish reversal pattern was printed in the form of shooting star.

The negative aspect of silver is being helped by the fundamental themes. The geopolitical tensions aren’t narrating a blow-out as the US administration and China relations are strengthened progressively, and the Indian Pakistan conflicting days are limited in numbers.

EURCAD Wedge,
[2019-02-26   06:16 GMT]

When EURCAD market price was testing the downsloping trendline at 1.4900, U.S. President jumped out of a sudden and shot a scary tweet, warning OPEC of market fragility, where WTI reacted badly, downed more than 4% so far, and the euro took a revenge reciprocal stance versus the loonie jumping almost one figure from base-test, triggering a test at the psychological resistance at 1.5000.

Technically, the chart shows a long downsloping trendline which has been tested several times to circulate how important it is. Another steep downsloping trendline of year 2018 has been pierced yesterday. Both down slopes converge onto bullish wedge should attract 1.5200’s eye as long as yesterday’s low survives double-day closing

AUDUSD Reversal,
[2019-02-21   07:09 GMT]

The short term cycle calls for a reversal approach achieving a bullish squeeze through three elements:

Head & Shoulder, Retracement 50-61% of the Fib line and a plus where a reversal approach was triggered (check the spike on those Fib levels), and finally the bearish flag where the price market confirmed a close below the upsloping uptrend.

The whole scenario has a width of 130 pips targeting 0.6990 and a close above today’s spike will negate the bear’s food.

CHFJPY Consolidation,
[2019-02-20   06:27 GMT]

Since the start of the year and after that chute at the beginning of January, the cross waves mostly within 100 pips bordering by a rectangle width of 200 pips.

The top right corner of the rectangle coincides with the resistance line of the regression trendline, reading 111.30 / 60.

A clear close above 111.30/60 would be perfected to ride the wave towards the target of the rectangle at 113.30. If the corner fails, one should wait for the 109.30 break to target the southern target at 107.30.

USDJPY Isn’t Fizzling Out,
[2019-02-19   10:46 GMT]

Dollar rally is not gradually ending as pundits expected from the commodity behavior such as gold, our think tank concludes.

The descending triangle, marked in reddish trend lines, had triggered its 480 pips objective fast and wild at the start of the year. Ever since, the market is graphing an ascending channel, marked in blue lines, pointing to the convergence focal point at 112.50.

It is important for the pair to stay above 109.75 for finalizing the trigger at 112.50.

EURGBP Breaking Brexit Consolidation,
[2019-02-18   07:44 GMT]

Daily Perspective: The plummet that started in August 2017 from 0.9300 and ended in September 2017 @ 0.8744 allowed retracement towards 50% in the first half of 2018 and to 61% in the second half of 2018.

Exactly one year later, since August 2018, we notice the market’s trials to break above 50% & 61% failed miserably, almost 18 times and 04 times respectively.

Weekly Perspective: do we observe double top Bearish pin bars where bulls’ supply lines have collapsed?

Conclusion: Last week high should be discussed as very important peak for next bearish leg, breaking the rectangle of the previous year, and march south targeting the low of 2017. Weekly close above the double pin negates seller’s scenario, an unlikely development for the near term.

Swiss in Action,
[2019-02-11   07:22 GMT]

At midnight, a stealthily USDCHF wave occurred for almost 90 pips; who stole it away?

On the other hand, is that a GBPCHF (bullish flag) right handle of the cup pattern? Let’s wait for the breaking point above the psychological influential level at 1.3000

Protect Positions & Market Braces for a Pause
[2019-02-11   07:21 GMT]

Between the Chinese, who resume trading after Lunar New Year Holidays, & the holiday of Japan, Asia market will wait to take its best clue from U.S.-China trade standoff-talk later this week. It is either dialogue is moving great or $200B Chinese goods will face a tariff more than double.

Swiss in Action,
[2019-02-11   07:21 GMT]

At midnight, a stealthily USDCHF wave occurred for almost 90 pips; who stole it away?

On the other hand, is that a GBPCHF (bullish flag) right handle of the cup pattern? Let’s wait for the breaking point above the psychological influential level at 1.3000

Equal Green Zones,
[2019-02-08   05:28 GMT]

For today, let’s keep it simple: Dollar’s strength shows no resilience despite dovish FED. On the 3hr chart, we can see the pair formulated a green zone, congested almost 5-month within last year , then, congested again below the base of the green zone for another 5-month between last year and this year. As European worries continue to rise, the test of the psychological base at 1.1300 is on the approach with a clear break seems in the offing assisting a momentum drive towards the south, targeting 1.1150 and below. Back to the that strength annotation of the dollar, US President Donald Trump said during State of Union address: "In just over two years since the election, we have launched an unprecedented economic boom, a boom that has rarely been seen before." Don’t dare underestimating the translation of the boom during his terms!

Back to Hell,
[2019-02-06   13:21 GMT]

European council president Donald Tusk has said there is a “special place in hell” for those who advocated Brexit without knowing how to deliver it, as he urged Theresa May to make realistic proposals for breaking a deadlock over the Irish border. Euro area’s economy is losing momentum. The dollar extended its advance as Treasuries edged higher.


Global equities are close to levels not seen since November, in part spurred by the Federal Reserve’s tilt toward a neutral policy stance. Further clues on what 2019 holds may come Wednesday from Chairman Jerome Powell’s first public comments following the January meeting and interest-rate decision.

The Chart of the Week: USDCHF
[2019-02-05   12:46 GMT]

Key events in the coming days:

Earnings season continues, with reports this week from Twitter, Hasbro, Ryanair, Disney, Philip Morris, BNP Paribas, ING, MetLife, Societe Generale

Trump delivers a delayed State of the Union address Tuesday

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gives his first public comments following the January FOMC meeting and rate decision.

Central banks in India and the U.K. set rates this week

 

The Weakest of the Day,

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined less than 0.05 percent.

The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.1425, the weakest in more than a week.

The British pound decreased 0.2 percent to $1.3013, the weakest in two weeks.

The Japanese yen declined less than 0.05 percent to 109.93 per dollar, the weakest in more than five weeks.

New Year Holiday,
[2019-02-04   12:35 GMT]

With China on a week-long Lunar New Year holiday, markets have been rather too miserable with less enthusiasm at the start of the week, as well as Brexit uncertainty, pound investors will also have to contend with the Bank of England decision this week.

 While officials are forecast to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, some economists see the potential for a split  to emerge on the Monetary Policy Committee as some members get increasingly concerned about accelerating wage growth. Any sign of a more hawkish tone among policy makers would support the currency. Currently, Cable is hovering a few pips off the 200 DMA (1.3045).

 Australia’s dollar fell against most of its Group-of-10 peers as an unexpected slide in building approvals raised the prospect that the central bank may adopt a more dovish tone this week.

GBPUSD During Next Brexit Fix,
[2019-01-30   10:50 GMT]

Technically, since 2019, as obvious as it is: Brexit is a disaster, British social awkwardness elevated to the scale of a constitutional meltdown prints non-stop rally that was taken aback by fund-managers, bankers, and traders. The disaster Brexit’s rally has siphoned 800 pips in just 20 trading days. What pattern did this rally damage? Notice the red lines that charted a descending triangle ahead of 2018 closing year. This triangle has played it well with one trick: all daily closes were triggered below the base line except the final day of the month: Dec 2018. Since then, the market rallies and the days below the base line fall under the notion of False-Break.

Further, the downsloping parallel green lines has received a resistance’s punch, marking a penetration that is so close towards the weekly moving average 100 (marked in blue rectangle). A weekly confirmation above MA100 and the next target becomes 1.3700+. This scenario negates if a close below the base line of the triangle is triggered.

 

 

Fundamentally, On Tuesday night Theresa May thought she had scored: a slender majority in parliament voted for an imaginary agreement in Brussels, stripped of the hated “backstop.” EU has already ruled out a renegotiation on terms that might satisfy the hardliners. The transient buzz of Tory unity will yield to the chilly comedown of Brexit reality, as it always does.

Some MPs can see the situation spiraling out of control. Today 298 lined up to demand an intervention. They backed a cross-party bid to seize control of the Brexit agenda from the government and delay the day of departure if necessary. But the move failed.

There is ample horror of the no-deal scenario across the Commons but clearly the greater fear is association with anything that looks like an active plot to thwart Brexit.

The idea has two parts: first, renegotiate the backstop that promises a frictionless Northern Irish border; second, if renegotiation fails, scrap the deal but salvage the transition period contained within in it. Then aim for an exit on WTO terms. It is a strange kind of compromise plan that offers no compromise.

Gold Attacks Venezuela's Wealth,
[2019-01-30   03:56 GMT]

Geopolitics is not confirming an end to gold's rally, & U-turn seems appropriate to hunt accordingly the 1370. BOE refused to give Venezuela Maduro its Gold worth $1.3B, & US will demonstrate that Maduro's increase of wealth can't gain access to.
Mr. Maduro has been attempting to repatriate the gold from the vaults since last year. The bullion in London makes up 15 per cent of Venezuela's foreign currency reserves.
The Caracas Chronicles, a Venezuelan publication, claims the Bank has twice refused gold transactions requests from the regime citing “compliance-related reasons”.
Directives sent on Friday to the US Federal Reserve will make it very hard for Mr. Maduro to access Venezuela's overseas assets and earnings, including those from Houston-based Citgo, a subsidiary of state-owned oil giant PDVSA and the major source of revenue for the bankrupt government

EURCHF Bull Statement,
[2019-01-29   09:41 GMT]

The ascending triangle is confirmed once a close in the blue circle (above 1.1360) is triggered. This ascending triangle falls in in the interval of 2 months, hinting for appropriate measurement towards a target at 1.1500. This scenario would be nullified once a close below 1.1170 is triggered.

Turkish Lira,
[2019-01-25   08:28 GMT]

The coming agreement towards border buffer-zone is enhancing the Turkish Lira. Technically, Bearish flag sounds great for USDTRY to follow!

Dow Jones continues to forge in vain,
[2019-01-25   08:26 GMT]

Notice descending triangle with 2bases (marked in green, blue.) Both triangles’ target yet to be accomplished. Shall we trigger the sell when US shutdown is terminated? The trigger goes adjacent to 2018 yearly close (below triangle bases)

Oil Price Catalyst,
[2019-01-25   08:23 GMT]

Oil Price Catalyst,

  1. Oversupply is a concern (weaker demand)
  2. China won a title in 2018 due to trade war: “Worst Performing Stock Market.”
  3. 2018 saw multiple sell-offs in the U.S. stock market driven by fear of a financial crisis, slow growth and the trade war. 2019 is akin to 2018.
  4. Reduce Sulfur Content in all marine fuels by 2020
  5. Russia, Unlike Saudi, would be content with lower prices

The interplay between these factors is likely to play a large role in influencing the oil market narrative for the year to come.

Brexit Pattern,
[2019-01-15   09:13 GMT]

“The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.” – Michael Gove, April 2016.

After a long vacation, we are coming back on time to watch the Brexit Bulletin where PM Theresa May accord goes to parliament late today for a vote. Will she win or be defeated that is an important measure for making the accord savoury to get it across the line.

The 100 votes is the magic number set by pound traders while 60 is for the European Union diplomats. There is hope if the number of votes is maintained below 100 and reduces the chance to call a no-confidence vote by Corbyn. GBP Positive.

If the number of votes exceeds the 100, all options are on the table including the call to form new government (above 200). GBP Negative.

Rally could hit 1.3000, 1.3350, 1.3500, even 1.3900 while the plummet shall hit 1.2500, 1.2200, 1.2000, 1.1500

ForexSurvivor Policy Course

Mapped By Predecessor


i. The market is full of fat tail risks that are impossible to predict and can shift market fundamentals without warning.

ii. Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than traders can remain solvent.

iii. Unless we get some sort of new action, volatility isn't likely to spike out of whack.

iv. A hedge fund manager makes a series of lucrative trades based on research from analysts at his firm and conversations with industry consultants. Some of those consultants have access to nonpublic information, but the manager doesn't trade on just a single thread of data. Instead, he culls together various tidbits of information from every nook and cranny of the market to stitch together a picture of a company.

v. There's an old market adage that says it's those quiet, unassuming price trends which are the ones most likely to continue.

vi. If you are inclined to enjoy puzzles, numbers, finance, economics, business, mathematics, science, psychology, and statistics, the market will be a most enjoyable space to thrive.

vii. Charts illustrate the pendulum swing between supply and demand, and the fight between buyers and sellers. The SLOPE is the master and commander of the trade, and Fibs are the checkpoints to either lighten or increase the trade size known as load.

viii. Silver lining known as Safe haven is defined as a currency, stock or commodity favored by investors in times of crisis because of its stability and/or easy liquidation, generally have lower returns.

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